2015年7月8日星期三

給特區的信（１６４）－貪婪的投行





---------- 轉寄的郵件 ----------
寄件者： George Luk 
日期： 2015年7月7日 下午9:24
主旨：給特區的信（１６４）－貪婪的投行
收件者： "Mr. Li Wei" <drc@drc.gov.cn>, "Mr. C Y Leung" <ceo@ceo.gov.hk>
副本： "hd@1823.gov.hk" <hd@1823.gov.hk>, "Mr. Anthony Cheung" <sthoffice@thb.gov.hk>, "Mr. TANG Kwok Wai" <scsoffice@csb.gov.hk>, "Mr. Tsang Tak Sing" <sha@hab.gov.hk>, "Ms. TENG Yu Yan" <doe@had.gov.hk>, George1 Luk 


李偉先生／梁振英先生：

1. 報載國務院總理李克強表示，有信心、有能力應對各種風險挑戰，推動經濟持續健康發展。

2. 上海證券報引述李克強昨日在北京會見出席首屆世界華僑華人工商大會代表，並發表講話時指，在環球經濟復蘇艱難曲折、國內經濟面臨較大下行壓力的情況下，中國推出一系列穩增長、促改革、調結構、惠民生的重大舉措，並加大定向調控力度，實現了經濟社會發展總體平穩，上半年經濟保持在合理區間運行，主要經濟指標趨穩向好。

3. 他指出，中國著眼於保持經濟中高速增長及朝向中高端水平的雙目標，另外，會加快推進新型工業化、信息化、城鎮化及農業現代化。

4. ２００８年９月１４日是雷曼事件爆煲引發金融海嘯之日，其實０６年尾西方世界的經濟已因次按及影子銀行等問題漸陷危機，卻仍在香港的股票市場上下其手，每天恒指上落動輒幾百至千多點。最近一個月中、港股市的大幅波動，頗有當年的影子。

5. 雖然今天的形勢跟當年有別，但投行的貪婪手法，如出一轍；附件中的幾封電郵，仍有其參考作用。

Regards,

George Luk



---------- 轉寄的郵件 ----------
寄件者： <ceo@ceo.gov.hk>
日期： 2015年6月29日 下午6:00
主旨： Re: 給特區的信（１６０）－兜兜轉轉（３）
收件者： George Luk

George:

6月19日的電郵收悉，謝謝你的意見。 

行政長官私人秘書
(麥佩儀 代行) 


附件：

1.  寄件者: annageor@netvigator.com
寄件日期: Wednesday, November 28, 2007 5:11
收件者: 'annageor@netvigator.com'
主旨: Bloomberg news: Global Derivatives Market Expands to $516 Trillion (Update1)

重要性: 高
敏感度: 私人

Global Derivatives Market Expands to $516 Trillion (Update1)




2. 
From: annageor [mailto:annageor@hkbn.net] 
Sent: Friday, August 29, 2008 3:20 PM.
To: georgeluk
Subject: FW: Global economy at different viewpoint (Update 1)
Importance: High

Pls note :-

(1) Richard Clarida’s [George Luk] (previous Under Secretary of Treasury, then joined Pimco as Consultant/Strategist?) view on why so many paper $US being issued[George Luk]  (since the 90’s) and still no much adverse effect on its status as the world’s reserve and vehicle currency – ex Finance Minister D’estaing and president De Gaulle of France ‘s “exorbitant privilege” of the dollar[George Luk]  refers.

(2) Pimco’s Bill Gross’s considered the king of the bond market in that Pimco manage the world’s largest portfolio of over $US 800 billion of assets with sustainable growth even during the arduous environment.

(3) Peter Schiff’s not a perma bear and he’s pointed out, together with many brilliant analysts like Richard Russell, Peter Brimelow, James Turk, Jon Nader etc., etc. that the situation won’t be sustainable.

(4) The whole world’s going to face the biggest problem since the 1929 Great Depression which brought the states/europe to a decline for over 10 years until the rise of Hitler and the WWII, yet the mainstream media wouldn’t like to face it.

(5) Fear & greed will control nearly all asset markets more profoundly in the near future.

(6) Pls seat tight and fasten seat belts.

(7) 10+5 ‘s 10 ASEAN countries & China, Japan, Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

(8) BRIC- Brazil, Russia, India & China.

(9) It’s a long mail, yet it’s worthwhile to take a look.

Cheers and good health

Yours sincerely,

George

From: annageor [mailto:annageor@hkbn.net]
Sent: Wednesday, August 20, 2008 11:20 PM
To: Mr. Zhang-yutai; Mr.Tsang, Donald
Subject: RE: Global economy at different viewpoint (Update 1)
Importance: High

Dear Messrs. Zhang/Tsang,

As most major global financial institutions are badly in need of cash to recapitalize their books while HK is the freest market in the world, wonder if they might use the markets here as Automatic Teller Machine to help alleviate their very problem(s) ?

Pls note the HSI’s updown range of a few hundred to over a thousand points may badly hurt the people here & the mainlanders.

Yours sincerely,

George

From: annageor [mailto:annageor@hkbn.net]
Sent: Monday, August 18, 2008 1:38 PM
To: 'drc@drc.gov.cn'
Cc: 'ceo@ceo.gov.hk'
Subject: Global economy at different viewpoint
Importance: High

Dear Mr. Zhang-yutai,

Pls note my email address been changed to annageor@hkbn.net 

Hope the attachments and links would give some idea on what’s going on on the global economy’s downturn and how we should position the Greater China in the coming years.

I wouldn’t be happy & actually sad to see the OECD being under-water like Japan since 1989’s Nikkei @40,000 and still below 14,000 some 19 years since,  yet the transfer of wealth sometimes unavoidable. Many bears point out their views some 15 years since, but cheerleaders called that a stopped clock’s correct twice a day.

Hope China can take every possible steps to avoid the same happen as our economic advance cycle just kick-start. As regional economy’s becoming more & more important, shall we try our best to go along the difficult road with 10+5/BRIC and other developing countries ?

Yours sincerely’

George Luk

.
http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/IO%20January%202008.aspx

http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/IO%20June%202008.aspx

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schiff/schiff081808.html


3.  
---------- 轉寄的郵件 ----------
寄件者： George Luk 
日期： 2013年2月12日上午9:31
主旨： 2008金融海嘯的後遺症
收件者： "Mr. John Tsang" <fso@fso.gov.hk>
副本： "Mr. Li Wei" <drc@drc.gov.cn>, "Mr. C Y Leung" <ceo@ceo.gov.hk>

曾俊華先生：

1. 當全球認為「印銀紙」及「扭曲操作」（包括利率），可以完全解決海嘯引起的問題時；仍然有不少關注人士大力呼籲，大家要非常小心：各種後遺症在過去幾年及未來幾年，將不斷出現。

2. 經濟大環境仍將會非常動盪。由其是全球各大主要銀行，近500萬億美元「與利率有關」的場外衍生工具合約，只要息口有稍大變動，「零和遊戲」所引發的殺傷力將遍及世界各國。

3. 「特區」採取較為保守的財政政策，實屬良策。此外多番提醒市民，留意市場風險，亦屬苦口婆心。衆多例子之一是，當日圓跌得太多／太急時，日債因被抛售以致價格下跌，利率急升時，為了解決其償付債息的能力，日本有可能要抛售外債及國外資產，連鎖反應可大可小。

4. 之前多次引用彭博的一篇題為：Lehman Monday Morning Lesson Lost With Obama's Regulator-in-chief :       
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&refer=top_news&sid=aUTh4YMmI6QE
請特別留意「LEHMAN SHOCK」中的8幅漫畫及其後需要在右上角點擊的11幅動畫（第2幅請加點按着「電話」看 Excerpt of recorded telephone conversation of Patrick Ledford, CIO of Reserve Primary Fund in :-
Lehman's Lessons
The Freeze:The Bankruptcy's Ripple Effects "The market was frozen, and nobody can buy or sell" -- Jack Winters, a 33-years veteran of the money-market industry"

5.  當商業票據無法在金融市場正常運作，投資者急於套現，各類資產價格下滑，各類息口大升， 現金就是王者(Cash is King)，銀行也難以正常運作，實體經濟會大受打擊。

6.  幸好大陸的金融體系相對受到嚴格「監管」及日益壯大，如她的城市化進行順利，基建進度良好的話，兩特區經濟可能仍不至太差，就是歐美日遊客減少，也有內地客補充。現在政府進行評估特區的旅客承接能力，實屬未雨綢繆，可作日後發展策劃之用。

7.  相信需要加速各項與大陸的地區性合作，當歐美日市場不濟時，本地打工仔仍可充分就業，令本地零售及各大服務行業暢旺。

8. Hope for the Best but prepare for the Worst，特區應早作準備。順祝新春愉快。

Best Regards,

George Luk


4.  
From: hkma@hkma.gov.hk [mailto:hkma@hkma.gov.hk]
Sent: Monday, September 08, 2008 6:12 PM
To: annageor
Subject: Re: Bloomberg news: U.S. Must Buy Assets to Prevent `Financial Tsunami,' Gross Says


Dear George,

Your email dated 5 Sept 08 is well received.  Thank you for your information.

Best regards,

Tiffany WONG
Public Enquiries Service
Hong Kong Monetary Authority



----------------------------------------- Reply History -----------------------------------------




 To:
 "Fso" <fso@fso.gov.hk>
"Mr.Tsang, Donald" <ceo@ceo.gov.hk>
"cso" <cso@cso.gov.hk>
"Martin WHEATLEY  " <enquiry@sfc.hk>
"Mr. Zhang-yutai" <drc@drc.gov.cn>
"YAM Chi Kwong" <hkma@hkma.gov.hk>


 cc:
 


 bcc:
 


 Tips



 From:
 "annageor" <annageor@hkbn.net>


 Date:
 05/09/2008 10:35 PM  
 Subject:
 Bloomberg news: U.S. Must Buy Assets to Prevent `Financial Tsunami,' Gross Says
Dear all,

Fyi

Regards,

George Luk

U.S. Must Buy Assets to Prevent `Financial Tsunami,' Gross Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&refer=&sid=aaVfH47UrqgA

Regards,
George Luk





＜如有興趣觀看之前的電郵，請前往連結： http://jet2468.blogspot.hk/ 。網誌內容主要是希望大家能對大陸、香港及週邊地區人士及政府多點理解／體諒，並以一般普羅大眾的觀點，加以進言。＞

＜閣下如不願意再接收由本人發出的郵件，請回電郵並在主旨寫上“移除”或“remove”。由此引致之不便，本人深表抱歉。＞
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