1. 人的一生，變化在所難免，在不同時刻都有機會面對決擇。同樣地，團體、公司、機構、社會、國家以至全人類，每時每刻都在做不同的選擇。因為「相信」，繼而「採納」是極多不同「選擇因素」中的主因，其他的原因會因時、因地、因人、因事而有異同。
2. 一個／多個或一連串選擇，會影響人的生活甚至一生。某些位居權重的人，他們的某些選擇，甚至會影響到國家以至全世界。
3. 影響遍及全球的「０８年金融海嘯」，是由於某些人在「很長時間」裏作出某些不明智選擇及／或决定而產生。而海嘯所帶來的問題及影響，至今表面上好像已經解決了，實際上却大有機會令全球經濟格局來一次大洗牌。
4. 事件是出自西方金融界長期以來一次又一次「重覆的錯誤決定」所引發（重覆的意思是極其相似，主因都是人類天生的劣根性：貪婪、自私、自大--認為自己比前人聰明），而每次事件發生後，機構或政府的政策制定者都說：This time is different，正如Carmen Reinhart及Kenneth Rogoff２００９年的同名新書，以過去八個世紀的銀行及金融危機所作的研究而得出的結論。
5. 前美國總統克林頓２０１０年在一篇訪問中，承認十年前聽從某些人的話而作的選擇是錯的：「Clinton: I Was Wrong to Listen to Wrong Advice Against Regulating Derivatives」April 18, 2010，By ABCNEWS.COM，連結：
6. 那次選擇所作出的決定，不單只令美國及其他西方國家於０７、０８年陷入不能自拔的泥沼、全球經濟大衰退，還埋下未來數十年的Weapon of mass destruction。
7. 以下的連結（圖表）可簡單顯示當年的情況：
a. Securitization markets were impaired during the crisis. This shows how readily available credit dried-up during the 2007-2008 crisis.
b. U.S. house price trend (1998–2008) as measured by the Case-Shiller index. Housing prices nearly doubled, rising from 100 to nearly 200 on the index, between 2000 and 2006.
c. U.S. household debt relative to disposable income and GDP.
d. Trace Meyer's Diagram - The Great Credit Contraction as at 08/09
，大家可以看到海嘯前兩年不斷發生的各種惡化情況，令全球數以千萬人失業，甚至抵受不住傾家盪產而自我了斷。
9. 其實很多抱著「逆向投資策略」的名家，在事發前幾年已經不斷提醒大家，但一般人都當作耳邊風，埋首於其時的表面繁榮。由於個人對正反兩面的意見都有參考，故此到事態極度惡劣前，我不斷向有關人士及朋友提供意見，請參考附件「有關０８金融海嘯的電郵：」。但一個關乎「選擇採納與否」的關鍵因素是「我為何要相信？」，因為大部份主流媒體及專家的意見，都不相信當時金融市場會出亂子，更惶論影響實體經濟。
10. 其實幾個人（克林頓及其班子）的決定，不足以造成那麼大的後果，可是一般人所相信的各種普世道德價值及制度，始終敵不過潛藏人類深處的劣根性，所以每個制度都有墮落／衰敗之時。現在由於「This time is different syndrome」，海嘯及接連多個危機後，人們又將先前的問題抛諸腦後。請看以下New York Times’ 「A Long Road to Regulating Derivatives」 posted MARCH 24, 2012
If there is one lesson from the financial crisis that should be indelible, it is that unregulated derivatives are prone to catastrophic failure. And yet, nearly four years after the crash, and nearly two years since the passage of the Dodd-Frank law, the multitrillion-dollar derivatives market is still dominated by a handful of big banks, and regulation is a slow work in progress.
That means Americans, and the economy, remain at risk. Properly regulated, derivatives— financial instruments that hedge risk — help to stabilize the economy. Unregulated, they are all too easily converted into tools for vast speculation, as demonstrated by their role in inflating the real estate bubble, amplifying the bust and provoking the bailouts. Unreformed, they will cause havoc again.
……………………………………………………………………………………..
11. 實際上整件事掀連甚廣，不可能短短幾行便可解釋到，其他資料會在搜集及整理好後，再繼續給大家參考。
Regards,
George Luk
---------- 轉寄的郵件 ----------
日期： 2016年7月20日 下午5:34
主旨： Re: 給特區的信（２１７）－Governability
收件者： George Luk
George:
7月10日致行政長官的電郵，我獲授權認收，謝謝你的意見。
行政長官私人秘書
(麥佩儀 代行)
５個附件
有關０８金融海嘯的部份電郵：
1.
----------
Forwarded message ----------
From:
Date: 2007-12-28 16:50 GMT+08:00
Subject: FW: Financial/Energy Information and re-visit to ( some previous
proposals to the Central/HKSAR Government and HK Legco members )
To: drc@drc.gov.cn
Dear Zhang-yutai,
Resend
due to undeliverable. Sorry for the inconvenience caused.
George
From:
Sent: Thursday, December 27, 2007 3:17
AM
To: 'drc@drc.gov.cn'
Subject: Financial/Energy Information and
re-visit to ( some previous proposals to the Central/HKSAR Government and HK
Legco members )
Importance: High
Dear Mr.
Zhang-yutai,
Enclosed please find some emails and links for your information and
necessary action, where appropriate, in advising the State Council. （７個附件中的第一個是：
寄件者: annageor@netvigator.com
寄件日期: Wednesday, November 28,
2007 5:11
收件者: 'annageor@netvigator.com';
'gl2468@gmail.com'
主旨: Bloomberg news: Global
Derivatives Market Expands to $516 Trillion (Update1)
重要性: 高
敏感度: 私人
Global
Derivatives Market Expands to $516 Trillion (Update1)
Many
thanks and happy new year. Ho Edmond is Macau’s Chief Executive.
George
Luk
2.
The decline and fall of Enron has changed
the world in other ways.
Enron collapsed because it was too big.
There are another
50-100 Enrons out there. All unregulated, all a shell game. It's going to get
real interesting before it's over.
Those in government would like you to
believe they are all powerful. They aren't. The government may have all the
power and still not be all powerful. For example, the government could make a
giant project of stopping the tide, a pail full at a time by lining the beaches
with the unemployed each with an empty pail.
It still can't stop the tide…………………………………………….
3.
To: drc@drc.gov.cn
Mr. Zhang-yutai,
The captioned is an American economist’s view on the States
economic problem other than the subprime one, fyi.
「The subprime mortgage crisis is merely
the tip of a very large iceberg. Beneath the surface lies not only a sea of
tenuous loans to prime borrowers, but also an assortment of other liabilities
backed by auto loans and credit card debit. Now that home equity extractions,
"zero percent auto financing" and "zero interest" credit
card rollovers are much harder to come by, Americans must do without the credit
lifelines that have previously kept them afloat.」
When the States have a sneeze, the world
will catch cold. Please take necessary measure(s) in safeguarding our
export-led growth…………………………………………….
Happy New Year!
Yours sincerely,
George Luk
4.
From: annageor
Sent: Wednesday, August
20, 2008 11:20 PM
To: Mr. Zhang-yutai;
Mr.Tsang, Donald
Subject: RE: Global
economy at different viewpoint (Update 1)
Importance: High
Dear Messrs. Zhang/Tsang,
As most major global financial institutions are
badly in need of cash to recapitalize their books while HK is the freest market
in the world, wonder if they might use the markets here as Automatic Teller
Machine to help alleviate their very problem(s) ?
Pls note the HSI’s updown
range of a few hundred to over a thousand points may badly hurt the people here
& the mainlanders.
Yours sincerely,
George
From: annageor
Sent: Monday, August 18,
2008 1:38 PM
To: 'drc@drc.gov.cn'
Cc: 'ceo@ceo.gov.hk'
Subject: Global economy at
different viewpoint
Importance: High
Dear Mr. Zhang-yutai,
Pls note my email address been changed to xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Hope the attachments and links would give some
idea on what’s going on on the global economy’s
downturn and how we should position the Greater China in the coming years.
I wouldn’t be
happy & actually sad to see the OECD being under-water like Japan since 1989’s Nikkei @40,000
and still below 14,000 some 19 years since, yet the
transfer of wealth sometimes unavoidable. Many bears point out
their views some 15 years since, but cheerleaders called that a stopped clock’s correct
twice a day.
Hope China can take every possible steps to
avoid the same happen as our economic advance cycle just kick-start. As regional
economy’s becoming more & more important, shall we try our best to
go along the difficult road with 10+5/BRIC and other developing countries ?
Yours sincerely’
George Luk
（In conclusion, the problems for the U.S.
economy and the dollar have been a long time in the making, and the fact that a
few of us were able to correctly diagnose the disease before its symptoms
become more apparent to a small group of astute, high profile investors, should
not be used to discredit our conclusions, especially as it appears the chickens
are finally coming home for a long overdue roost………………………………………………………
February 8, 2005
Peter Schiff）
（The Strong Dollar Illusion
Peter Schiff
Aug 18, 2008
Economists who now
see American troubles spreading around the world are predicting that foreign
central banks will ignore the gathering inflation threat and follow the Fed
down the rate cutting path. Similarly, they argue that since the downturn began
here, the U.S. recovery will likely be underway while the rest of world is
still decelerating. These assumptions have prompted a rally in the dollar, a
sell-off in gold, commodities and foreign stocks, and have cast doubts on the
ability of foreign economies to "decouple" from the United States.
Investors should not take the bait.
……………………………………………………………………………………..）
5.
From: hkma@hkma.gov.hk [mailto:hkma@hkma.gov.hk]
Sent: Monday, September 08, 2008 6:12
PM
To: annageor
Subject: Re: Bloomberg news: U.S. Must Buy Assets
to Prevent `Financial Tsunami,' Gross Says
Dear George,
Your email dated 5 Sept 08 is well received. Thank you for your information.
Best regards,
Tiffany WONG
Public Enquiries Service
Hong Kong Monetary
Authority
----------------------------------------- Reply History
-----------------------------------------
|
|
|
|
|
|
To:
|
|
|
|
|
cc:
|
|
|
|
|
bcc:
|
|
|
|
|
Tips
|
|
|
|
|
From:
|
"annageor"
|
|
|
|
Date:
|
05/09/2008
10:35 PM
|
|
Subject:
|
Bloomberg
news: U.S. Must Buy
Assets to Prevent `Financial Tsunami,' Gross Says
|
Dear all,
Fyi
Regards,
George Luk
U.S. Must Buy Assets to Prevent
`Financial Tsunami,' Gross Says
