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From: George Luk
Date: 2015-04-12 21:23 GMT+08:00
Subject: 給特區的信（１４９）－中國可持續增長的探討（４）：Prime numbers : Megacities
To: "Mr. Li Wei" <drc@drc.gov.cn>, "Mr. C Y Leung" <ceo@ceo.gov.hk>
Cc: "hd@1823.gov.hk" <hd@1823.gov.hk>, "Mr. Anthony Cheung" <sthoffice@thb.gov.hk>, "Mr. TANG Kwok Wai" <scsoffice@csb.gov.hk>, "Mr. Tsang Tak Sing" <sha@hab.gov.hk>, "Ms. TENG Yu Yan" <doe@had.gov.hk>, George1 Luk
李偉先生／梁振英先生：
1. 以下是Mckinsey Global Institute的Richard Dobbs在２０１０年十月號的Foreign Policy Magazine的一篇關於中國和印度在跟着的幾十年「
Article | Foreign Policy Magazine
Prime numbers : Megacities
October 2010 | by Richard Dobbs
2. Over the next two decades, the world will see a burst of urban expansion at a speed and on a scale never before witnessed in human history. But not all the world will take part. When you hear about the coming urban age, it's really a story about rising Asia and the two countries that will define this new era of the megacity: China and India. Half of Asia will become urbanized, and nearly a billion people will shift from countryside to cityscape. Trillions of dollars will need to be spent on roads, trains, power plants, water systems, and social services. And it's going to happen in less than half the time that it took for the West to urbanize. China and India will account for two-fifths of the world's urban growth, but they are pursuing wildly different strategies for managing this shift. Beijing's approach is systematic: The government has invested ahead, allocated land, plotted out transportation networks, and given its cities the freedom to raise capital. New Delhi, meanwhile, hasn't done enough to prepare. So while China has embraced a future of office parks and high-speed rail, India is just waking up to its new urban reality.
3. Who goes where?
In just two decades, China will have a whopping 44 urban areas boasting populations larger than 4 million. India will have 11 such cities. Who will live there? In China, the answer is simple: migrants from rural areas. Growth in India's cities, by contrast, will mainly be organic. The country's population is also much younger than China's. A mere 16 percent of India’s population will be over 55 in 20 years, while 28 percent of China's will be.
4. What needs building?
It's the stuff of dreams for developers and construction companies. If current trends hold, China will need 40 billion square meters of combined residential and commercial floor space over the next 20 years—equivalent to adding one New York every two years. India, on the other hand, needs to start building between 700 million and 900 million square meters of combined residential and commercial space each year—equivalent to adding more than two Mumbais or one Chicago each year.
5. Transportation
China has the potential to revolutionize mass transit—it already has plans for building new metros, highways, and high-speed trains in its top 170 cities. In fact, Beijing has already begun investing heavily in this sector; between 2004 and 2006 alone, spending on urban transportation increased almost 50 percent. New Delhi's spending on transportation infrastructure, however, needs to pick up urgently. At its current rate of metro and road construction, India is headed for gridlock on a massive scale. The country needs to build 350 to 400 kilometers of metro rail every year to keep up with its current standards—but that’s more than 20 times the capacity that has been built in the past decade.
China has the potential to revolutionize mass transit—it already has plans for building new metros, highways, and high-speed trains in its top 170 cities. In fact, Beijing has already begun investing heavily in this sector; between 2004 and 2006 alone, spending on urban transportation increased almost 50 percent. New Delhi's spending on transportation infrastructure, however, needs to pick up urgently. At its current rate of metro and road construction, India is headed for gridlock on a massive scale. The country needs to build 350 to 400 kilometers of metro rail every year to keep up with its current standards—but that’s more than 20 times the capacity that has been built in the past decade.
6. Energy
It's hard to overstate what a massive impact the coming urbanization in China and India will have on energy markets. Demand for power in China's cities will more than double from today's level, accounting for roughly 20 percent of global energy consumption. Meeting that need will call for huge investments in coal, of which China is already the largest international buyer. India's power targets are also ambitious; the country hopes to add 62,000 megawatts to its grid by 2012. If trends continue, India's carbon dioxide emissions will grow nearly sevenfold by 2030, while China's will nearly double.
It's hard to overstate what a massive impact the coming urbanization in China and India will have on energy markets. Demand for power in China's cities will more than double from today's level, accounting for roughly 20 percent of global energy consumption. Meeting that need will call for huge investments in coal, of which China is already the largest international buyer. India's power targets are also ambitious; the country hopes to add 62,000 megawatts to its grid by 2012. If trends continue, India's carbon dioxide emissions will grow nearly sevenfold by 2030, while China's will nearly double.
7. The price tag
Urban growth will come with a high price tag—a whopping $35 trillion to $40 trillion in China and $2.2 trillion in India over the coming two decades. In addition to all the building and public infrastructure, China and India will need to invest heavily in delivering services—everything from education to health care to social security. As China's over-65 population more than doubles and migrants flood its cities, government spending on health care will struggle to keep up, rising from 19 percent to 21 percent of GDP. Even with China's massive economic growth, paying the bill won't be easy. Many of China's largest cities are self-sufficient, but other smaller and newer areas are already running deficits. India’s urban spending, meanwhile, is already very low by international standards.
Urban growth will come with a high price tag—a whopping $35 trillion to $40 trillion in China and $2.2 trillion in India over the coming two decades. In addition to all the building and public infrastructure, China and India will need to invest heavily in delivering services—everything from education to health care to social security. As China's over-65 population more than doubles and migrants flood its cities, government spending on health care will struggle to keep up, rising from 19 percent to 21 percent of GDP. Even with China's massive economic growth, paying the bill won't be easy. Many of China's largest cities are self-sufficient, but other smaller and newer areas are already running deficits. India’s urban spending, meanwhile, is already very low by international standards.
8. What will it be like to live there?
The megacities will be home to China's and India’s growing middle classes—creating consumer markets larger than today's Japan and Spain, respectively. In China, the number of urban middle-class households will quintuple; in India it will grow nearly fourfold. India's wealthiest urban households—those earning more than 1 million rupees a year (about $22,000)—could number 11 million, more than the total number of households in Australia today. In both countries, the wealth gap between rural and urban areas will grow with urbanization. Urban GDP per capita will exceed rural GDP by 3.5 times in China and more than 5 times in India.
The megacities will be home to China's and India’s growing middle classes—creating consumer markets larger than today's Japan and Spain, respectively. In China, the number of urban middle-class households will quintuple; in India it will grow nearly fourfold. India's wealthiest urban households—those earning more than 1 million rupees a year (about $22,000)—could number 11 million, more than the total number of households in Australia today. In both countries, the wealth gap between rural and urban areas will grow with urbanization. Urban GDP per capita will exceed rural GDP by 3.5 times in China and more than 5 times in India.
9. Jobs
Jobs in the cities will be more prevalent, productive, and lucrative in urban China and India than in rural areas. China's ranks of university graduates—growing by 26 percent annually—will mostly work in cities, which will compete to recruit their skills. In India, three-quarters of new urban jobs will be in the service sector.
Jobs in the cities will be more prevalent, productive, and lucrative in urban China and India than in rural areas. China's ranks of university graduates—growing by 26 percent annually—will mostly work in cities, which will compete to recruit their skills. In India, three-quarters of new urban jobs will be in the service sector.
10. Traffic nightmare
Even if China and India build roads and metro rail as fast as practically possible, they still won't be able to match the soaring rates of car ownership and urban growth. The number of vehicles in China, for example, has grown three times faster than the capacity of roads over the past 20 years. In Beijing, traffic speed has already dropped to less than half of London’s. India's predicament is even worse; if the country invests in its urban infrastructure at the predicted rate—an estimated $300 billion over 20 years—traffic across the country could literally come to a standstill.
11. Service gap
China's biggest urban challenge may be water; already, it has little to spare. Some 70 percent of water use today traces back to agriculture, but demand from urban consumers and commercial enterprise is on the rise. Even if the sheer amount of water isn't the problem, location will be; the country will need to spend more than $120 billion on water systems in the coming years to transport, store, and manage supplies. In India, service delivery will fall woefully short of demand in coming years across most urban infrastructure sectors.
12. 附件是一位大陸博客將以上文章的大部份翻譯的博文。
Regards,
George Luk
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寄件者： <ceo@ceo.gov.hk>
日期： 2015年4月10日 下午5:25
主旨： Re: 給特區的信（１４７）－中國可持續增長的探討（３）關香港咩事？
收件者： George Luk
George:
4月2日致行政長官的電郵，我獲授權認收，謝謝。
收件者： George Luk
George:
4月2日致行政長官的電郵，我獲授權認收，謝謝。
行政長官私人秘書
(麥佩儀 代行)
(麥佩儀 代行)
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寄件者： <ceo@ceo.gov.hk>
日期： 2015年4月10日 下午5:21
主旨： Re: 給特區的信（１４６）－中國可持續增長的探討（２）與我何干？
收件者： George Luk
George:
3月31日致行政長官的電郵，我獲授權認收，謝謝。
收件者： George Luk
George:
3月31日致行政長官的電郵，我獲授權認收，謝謝。
行政長官私人秘書
(麥佩儀 代行)
附件：
(麥佩儀 代行)
附件：
資料中的大城市（Prime Numbers : Megacities）
(2010-09-07 00:33:18)
from liyu_wang84的博客
看到微博上提到的美國《外交政策》上的這篇文章，讀來覺得還是挺有意義的，特此翻譯全文如下：
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在接下來的20年中，世界將目睹一場城市大爆炸，它的速度之快、範圍之廣都將會是人類歷史上極其罕見的。不過這並不是一個全球參與的遊戲。這個即將到來的城市時代，事實上是正在崛起的亞洲的故事，更確切地說，是兩個超級大國的故事，而這兩個國家恰恰定義了這一大都市新紀元：中國和印度。1/2亞洲將會完成城市化，將近10億的人口會從鄉村轉移到城市，城市道路、鐵路、電廠、水系統和社會服務上的花費也將接近萬億美金，而完成這一切的時間卻只需要西方國家的一半。中國和印度一起將會佔據2/5的世界城市增長，但他們正採取完全不同的戰略來完成這一轉變。北京的方式更為系統：政府先期投資、劃撥土地、佈局交通網絡並給予城市更大自由以募集資金。而新德里卻準備不夠充分。所以當中國已經擁有總部花園和高鐵時，印度則剛剛從這一新的都市格局中驚醒。
在接下來的20年中，世界將目睹一場城市大爆炸，它的速度之快、範圍之廣都將會是人類歷史上極其罕見的。不過這並不是一個全球參與的遊戲。這個即將到來的城市時代，事實上是正在崛起的亞洲的故事，更確切地說，是兩個超級大國的故事，而這兩個國家恰恰定義了這一大都市新紀元：中國和印度。1/2亞洲將會完成城市化，將近10億的人口會從鄉村轉移到城市，城市道路、鐵路、電廠、水系統和社會服務上的花費也將接近萬億美金，而完成這一切的時間卻只需要西方國家的一半。中國和印度一起將會佔據2/5的世界城市增長，但他們正採取完全不同的戰略來完成這一轉變。北京的方式更為系統：政府先期投資、劃撥土地、佈局交通網絡並給予城市更大自由以募集資金。而新德里卻準備不夠充分。所以當中國已經擁有總部花園和高鐵時，印度則剛剛從這一新的都市格局中驚醒。
何人該往何處去
在短短20年內，中國將會快速冒出44個人口多於400萬的大型城市。印度將會有11個這樣的城市。那麼誰會居住在那裡？在中國，這個答案將會非常簡單：鄉村地區的移民者。相反的是，在印度許多城市則是有機增長的形式。而印度的國家人均年齡也會較中國年輕。只有16%的印度人口會在未來20年後超過55歲，在中國這個百分比將會是28%。
需要建設什麼？
這個可能是開發商和建築公司的夢想。如果現在的趨勢能夠保持，中國在未來的20年中將會需要面積為4百億平方米的商住混合地——相當於每兩年就建設一個新紐約。另外，印度需要開始每年建設7億到9億平方米的商住混合用地——相當於每年建設超過兩個孟買或一個芝加哥。
交通
中國非常有潛力對大容量交通進行改革——他們在170個主要城市中早就有建設新地鐵、高速公路、高速鐵路的計畫。事實上，背景在交通方面的投資已經相當巨大：僅2004年和2006年間，城市交通的花費增長率就將近50%。然而，新德里在交通基礎設施上的花費則需要增加。根據現在地鐵和道路的建設率來說，印度大面積的交通堵塞情況非常嚴重。印度必須以每年建造350-400公里的軌道交通才能保持現有的交通狀況——而這個量已經是過去十年建設量的20倍不止。
能源
能源
很難理解中國和印度即將到來的城市化將會對能源市場產生怎樣的巨大影響。中國城市對電力的需求將會成倍于現金的程度，大約會是全球能耗的20%左右。要想滿足這樣的需求，對煤礦的投資將會非常巨大，而現在中國已經是全球最大的買家。印度的供電目標同樣野心勃勃；他們希望在2012年國家電網能夠多提供62000兆瓦的電量。如果這個趨勢繼續下去的話，印度的二氧化碳排放量在2030年將會翻七倍，而中國將會翻一翻。
城市增長往往伴隨著高物價——在今後的20年，中國將會達到35-40萬億美金而印度則為2萬億美金。包括所有建築和基礎設施，中國和印度還將會在服務功能上提供巨大投資——包括教育、醫療保險和社會保障等。隨著中國65歲以上人群的成倍增長以及大量移民湧入城市，政府在醫保上的花費將會不斷攀升，從19%GDP上升到21%。即是中國的經濟飛速發展，這份帳單也不是能夠輕易付清的。許多中國的大型城市尚能自給自足，但是其他小型或者新型城市早就已經財政赤字了。然後，印度的城市花費則遠遠低於國際標準。
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