2025年1月22日星期三

給特區的信(626)-「Can We Talk?」的由來

 



寄件者: George Luk 
Date: 2025年1月22日 週三 下午1:35
Subject: 給特區的信(626)-「Can We Talk?」的由來
To: 夏寶龍先生 <service@hmo.gov.cn>, Mr. John Lee <ceo@ceo.gov.hk>
Cc: info@hkcoalition.com <info@hkcoalition.com>, Dr. CHOI Yuk Lin <sedoffice@edb.gov.hk>, Miss MAK Mei Kuen <shya@hyab.gov.hk>, Mr. YAU Cheuk Hang, Vic, JP <d.nmco@devb.gov.hk>, Mrs. YEUNG HO Poi Yan <scsoffice@csb.gov.hk>, Ms. HO Wing Yin <shoffice@hb.gov.hk>, Ms. LINN Hon Ho <sdev@devb.gov.hk>, Prof. LO Chung Mau <sho@healthbureau.gov.hk>, George4 Luk 


夏寳龍先生/李家超先生:

1. 「Can We Talk?」的名稱是來自廿二年前美國Joseph Fasciani的同名文章。當時他力勸女兒在適當時機要獲利。要有Plan B,留有退路。

2. 他的原文:-『Can we talk?
By Joseph Fasciani
April 21, 2003
At the risk of being condemned as a "nag" by my daughter Lela after we finished making over the US$249,000 "fixxer-upper" she bought in November 1999, I started about six months ago, asking when she was going to sell it and take profits.

Recently married, she had a very good position as a civil engineer with a major East Bay firm in California, "the golden state," and was certain matters would go on forever. This, in spite of the tens of thousands she'd lost in the ever-so-high-tech sector!
"Don't forget, Dad, I made a lot of money there too! Those profits were the down payment on this house."
"Yes, but you forget the losing positions you won't let go of, in spite of what I've shown you in charting, technical analysis, fundamentals, and research. Most of all, I don't want you to end the way I did, when gold hit $850 and I was land rich and money poor."
"But Dad, things were different then! That was Canada, nearly twenty years ago, and this is now!"
So there it is: this is most certainly now, no doubt about it, and the situation's the same...only worse, much worse. Still, in the year and a half I'd spent with her as financial mentor, she had begun to see matters in a different light. She had made more money, faster, trading put options than she ever had with equities, at a time when markets were going down, a novel concept to her. That was good, so she began to trust me a little more. But a year ago, when I started talking about real estate as the last bubble, she was sure the old guy had lost it. After all, didn't she live in California, where property only went up, never down?
So then I asked her about Plan B.
"What's Plan B?" she asked.
"Well, you've made money doing what you did so far, you have a house, and you're both working. That's Plan A. But what happens if Mark gets laid off, the economy tanks, and you're on one income instead of two?"
"Yeah, but that won't happen."
"Really? Then what do you call all the corporate crack-ups, bankruptcies, and market scandals?"
"I don't know, I can't follow everything, I'm too busy. That's what you're supposed to be doing for me!"
"Why do you think we're making thousands by shorting companies? Because they're doing well? So what's your next plan?"
"I don't have one," she admitted.
"Okay. How about you unload the house now--which you said you were going to do anyhow--and use the money to buy a smaller place, one that could be paid for out of your salary?"

To make this family saga brief, she caved in and did just that, last September. The next house was ten years newer, had far less maintenance, its combined mortgage and taxes were only $1000/month with a substantial down payment out of her profits, and was easily paid out of her salary alone. In the six months following the sale of her old house (at $484,000.00 to people with more money than market savvy), her husband was injured on-site at his workplace, lost that job, recovered, got a better job. Two months later he hospitalized himself again, got out before Christmas, came home, and four days later decided to trim the redwood tree in their backyard. He fell from the top, landed on the wooden doghouse and cracked six ribs. This employer kept him on.

And surprise! Lela can make the payments on her own. Plan B worked.

At my insistence she also bought $25,000.00 of SGGDX and RGLD, and will be adding to her position next week. I took another $25,000.00 at that time, used Elliott Wave Theory applications, and made 31% for her in less than six weeks' trading in equities, when we dumped them last week in the "rally." Other than T bills, we are completely out of paper instruments at this time.

Her husband, Mark, is still at home. But she can make the payments! And she's well-positioned to weather stormy markets and a failing economy. I don't want to see her stuck as I was, under huge debt, land rich, and money poor in a time of rising interest rates.
Which brings me to the final point of this foray into never-never land, about to become "deja vu all over again" land. Because the Iraqnam War's started the interest cycle into motion, rolling to ever higher rates, as the economy stagnates. And you read it here first.

Already I hear cries of disbelief and anguish! What's he talking about? Any fool can see that will lead to inflation, hurt weak stock markets, etc., etc. Well, let's review a little history, shall we?

Let's start with the really good old days, say 1863, when the newly formed Union Pacific and Central Pacific Railroad needed to raise millions. To attract savings they had to offer an interest rate of 6% on their bonds. They went to President Lincoln with their ideas, got permission, and the rest, as they say, is history.

Before me(原作者) is a copy of an 1882 Federal Gold Certificate: it bears a portrait of Lincoln on its left face, and on the right face a seal of 500. Between is bannered:
This certifies that
there have been deposited in the
Treasury of the United States
FIVE HUNDRED DOLLARS
in
GOLD COIN
Repayable to the bearer on demand.
Now those really were the good old days! Wouldn't you like to have that as money today! But here's the kicker: when you cashed those in, you got gold coinage, at six percent um per annum. So gold can indeed pay interest, in a roundabout way, called "investing in viable commerce."

The basic flaw in the US economy today is that too much of it is based on what ecological economics calls "unsustainable growth," which medical doctors know as "cancer." Until we return to truly fundamental, useful production that meets real human needs, the cycle of boom and bust will continue until we self-destruct. Sorry, but the universe is a closed system, with inevitable consequences. Which is why Heraklitus could say that "The way up and the way down is one and the same." Keep that in mind when you're trading!

This problem was resolved, however, by Dr Eugen Loebl in his economic treatise "Humanomics: How We Can Make the Economy Serve Us, Not Destroy Us", published in 1972, and highly praised by Peter Drucker and many others. We would do very well indeed to pay attention to what he says.

Some believe the Iraqnam War will magically revive this economy. Really? Did the Vietnam War do that? No. Instead, that lop-sided waste of blood and treasure initiated a federal debt that's become unpayable, and brought us to our present state of affairs. And while history does not repeat itself in style, it does do so in substance, and unless we learn these lessons, we must pay the price of our willful ignorance.

"There is nothing," remarked Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, "more frightening than ignorance in action."

You read it here first: interest rates will rise in six months after gold's peak at $390 (2003 年). This will occur just after the dollar bottoms (We're not quite there yet.), because that is the only way for it to retain credibility. Roosevelt had to do the same at the bottom of the last Great Depression. Look it up. Gold's price perfectly anticipates the decrease in the value of the dollar. Count on it.

Please note that I've not brought in the matter of gold's appeal in times of crisis and turmoil, which the current Washington admin promises us an infinite amount of for a very long time. But enough frivolity from me. Get a copy of  Dr Charles MacKay's Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. It was written in 1841, has never gone out of print, and describes perfectly what we're going through. You may get a belly full of laughs in his chapters on stock market swindles and the collapse of fiat (paper) currency once, twice, many times before, bringing on national crisis.

If you don't like what I'm saying, fine, but at least read what others here at 321gold have given as ample timely warning. And take Goethe's words to heart: many consider him the most intelligent, aware person who has ever lived. With 5 to 10% of your net worth in gold, you'll have an immutable, intelligent investment in your own survival.

Joseph Fasciani
April 21, 2003
________________
321gold Inc Miami USA』Ends

3. 其實香港的樓市泡沫,因為吹得過大,比起2014年明報所估計(請看附圖)的20.6萬億,下跌咗約七至八萬億。已經足夠建設三至四個交椅洲填海及北都區的總數有餘。當然今天的實際情況,不能用未經兩次大型社會運動後所能估量得到。還有是十一年前,未經「土地大辯論」,絶非今天可能達致?

4. 但今天仍然有諸多理由,被拖延下來。


Regards,

George Luk



---------- Forwarded message ---------
寄件者: Enquiry CEO/CEO <ceo@ceo.gov.hk>
Date: 2025年1月7日週二 下午3:30
Subject: 給特區的信(625)-大灣區融資的建議
To: George Luk 

Luk先生:
 
謝謝你1月3日及7日致行政長官的兩封電郵,我獲授權認收,內容備悉。

行政長官私人秘書
(謝萍萍 代行)




<上一封政府回郵有/挾附本人的去信>

<很多時候都會「重温過往的電郵」,指出社會的重要議題。當年社會為了所謂「政治爭拗而未能聚焦解決問題」,蹉跎歲月,故值得再提出給大家思考。>

<如有興趣觀看之前對社會及政府提出意見或建議的電郵,請前往連結:(i)   http://jet2468.blogspot.hk/   (ii) (及歷任政府官員的回覆:https://jet2468.blogspot.com/2021/08/blog-post.html>

<網誌內容主要是希望大家能對香港、大陸及週邊地區人士及政府多點理解/體諒,並以一般普羅大眾的觀點,加以進言。>

<閣下如不願意再接收由本人發出的郵件,請回電郵並在「主旨」寫上移除“remove”。由此引致之不便,本人謹此致歉。>

<特此鳴謝被引用或摘錄過文章內容的作者。著作權及版權皆屬該作者及/或其出版機構。聲明:轉載有關文章或視頻是出於傳遞更多信息之目的。若有來源標註錯誤或侵犯了您的合法權益,請作者持權屬證明與本人聯繫,本人將及時更正、刪除,謝謝。>


 




2025年1月7日星期二

給特區的信(625)-大灣區融資的建議









寄件者: George Luk 
Date: 2025年1月7日週二 上午8:59
Subject: 給特區的信(625)-大灣區融資的建議
To: 夏寶龍先生 <service@hmo.gov.cn>, Mr. John Lee <ceo@ceo.gov.hk>
Cc: info@hkcoalition.com <info@hkcoalition.com>, Dr. CHOI Yuk Lin <sedoffice@edb.gov.hk>, Miss MAK Mei Kuen <shya@hyab.gov.hk>, Mr. YAU Cheuk Hang, Vic, JP <d.nmco@devb.gov.hk>, Mrs. YEUNG HO Poi Yan <scsoffice@csb.gov.hk>, Ms. HO Wing Yin <shoffice@hb.gov.hk>, Ms. LINN Hon Ho <sdev@devb.gov.hk>, Prof. LO Chung Mau <sho@healthbureau.gov.hk>, George4 Luk 

夏寳龍先生/李家超先生:

1. 以下為「特首辦」 當日的回覆,不小心忽略了,沒有跟進作答。雖說是(Confidential),只是跟我去信的標題作回覆。若他們也認為真的是「機密」的話,他們會索性不回覆,這是我們的一貫做法。

2. 『---------- Forwarded message ---------
寄件者: Enquiry CEO/CEO <ceo@ceo.gov.hk>
Date: 2024年9月3日週二 上午10:39
Subject: Re: 大灣區融資(Confidential)
To: George Luk 
Luk先生:
 
謝謝你9月2日致行政長官的電郵,我獲授權認收,內容備悉。

行政長官私人秘書
(謝萍萍 代行)
 
From: George Luk 
Sent: Monday, September 2, 2024 6:37 PM
To: 夏寶龍先生 <service@hmo.gov.cn>; Enquiry CEO/CEO <ceo@ceo.gov.hk>
Subject: Fwd: 大灣區融資(Confidential)
 
夏寳龍先生/李家超先生:
 
以下謹供兩位參考。

香港現時實際缺乏本地消費者的購買力,究其原因乃
地產界過去三、四年間未有好好衡量虛高的樓價/地價,於聯儲局一大力壓抑通脹,地價跟樓價便速速回落,令到所有貨尾或新樓,都變得非常之高。所有人無論是現樓或是新樓盤均需大力減價促銷。三四年前便透支了今天整個行業的購買力。
沒有足夠的高薪收入或移入的高薪人士,並非指高學歷或高收入的金融行業人士。而是缺乏高收入的藍領或高技術基建技術工人。

其實每個地產發展商都有辦法取得融資去發展手頭的項目(通常幾個),以合理的槓桿循環作融資及償還短期債項。

若政府能有辦法作他們的担保人,或政府發債以撑起比目前更多的基建項目,屆時高收入人士可能會大增,而形成比現時多得多的消費力。

廿幾年前,曾目睹大陸因工資大增而形成消費及購買力倍增的情況。舉個例子:廣東省由2000年的10741億元GDP,大增至2005年的22557億元,再大增至2010年的45472億元。2023年經濟數據,全年地區生產總值(GDP)突破13萬億元。
 
Regards,
 
George Luk
 
 
 ---------- Forwarded message ---------
寄件者: George Luk 
Date: 2024年XXXXXXXX
Subject: Fwd: 大灣區融資(Confidential)
To: XXXXXXXXXXX,
 
Dear XXXXX,
 
以下二月尾給XX的電郵,給你分享。其實每封給夏寶龍/李家超及兩位前特首CY Leung及林鄭月娥的電郵,都有bcc給你及XX、及十多位其他地產界老闆及極高層人士。
以下附件的信頭均以「XX總公司地址」作為「恒和誠信顧問有限公司」地址,廿年前XX告知我,他已獲得XX同意,故XX並無為下面信件特別再詢問我。
而二月至今,他仍然如常接收我給政府信件的bcc,及我給他的電話(內容主要是我第一手從特首覆信中有關地產界的消息,如撤辣、大幅度減地價及基建項目等)。其實政府都想我對以前提及的地產大佬吹吹風。
前日「黑色星期一」之後,聯儲局將會增加減息速度救經濟,意味較平的資金,又會出現。這是為何想約你傾傾。
經過近千封給政府的信,及他們的回覆,已經跟政府及很多大灣區官員建立起良好關係。跟廿年前「不可同日而語」。
 
Regards,
 
George
 
---------- Forwarded message ---------
寄件者: George Luk 
Date: 2024年
Subject: 大灣區融資
To:  XXXXXXXXXX
 
DearXXXXXXXX,
 
1. 以下的附件是廿年前我找 Mr.XXXXXXXXXX合作的部分大陸基建融資項目。
 
2. 由於當年大陸的官員/商人等的貪腐情況很嚴重,故就算即將有機會完成的交易,每每都借故因小事告吹。
 
3. 本人今天跟政府官員(香港、大灣區以至港澳辦)的關係,加上他們的各種基建及商業項目,需要大量資金。若貴公司能成立一個引資、融資的部門,協助大灣區以至整個中國引進資金,如若成功,相信貴公司將會得到政府相關部門的信任。
 
4. 幾年前曾跟XX重提此事,但他說年事已高,已全身引退,不想再為世俗事費心,並暗示我可以找其他舊同事商量。
 
Regards,
 
George Luk



<上一封政府回郵有/挾附本人的去信>

<很多時候都會「重温過往的電郵」,指出社會的重要議題。當年社會為了所謂「政治爭拗而未能聚焦解決問題」,蹉跎歲月,故值得再提出給大家思考。>

<如有興趣觀看之前對社會及政府提出意見或建議的電郵,請前往連結:(i)   http://jet2468.blogspot.hk/   (ii) (及歷任政府官員的回覆:https://jet2468.blogspot.com/2021/08/blog-post.html>

<網誌內容主要是希望大家能對香港、大陸及週邊地區人士及政府多點理解/體諒,並以一般普羅大眾的觀點,加以進言。>

<閣下如不願意再接收由本人發出的郵件,請回電郵並在「主旨」寫上移除“remove”。由此引致之不便,本人謹此致歉。>

<特此鳴謝被引用或摘錄過文章內容的作者。著作權及版權皆屬該作者及/或其出版機構。聲明:轉載有關文章或視頻是出於傳遞更多信息之目的。若有來源標註錯誤或侵犯了您的合法權益,請作者持權屬證明與本人聯繫,本人將及時更正、刪除,謝謝。>

2025年1月2日星期四

給特區的信(433)-愛國者治港之「為官避事平生恥」2

 





---------- Forwarded message ---------
寄件者: George Luk <gl2468@gmail.com>
Date: 2021年7月16日 週五 下午3:31
Subject: 給特區的信(433)-愛國者治港之「為官避事平生恥」2
To: Mr. Ma Jiantang <drc@drc.gov.cn>, Mrs. Lam Cheng Yuet Ngor <ceo@ceo.gov.hk>
Cc: 夏寶龍先生 <service@hmo.gov.cn>, 香港再出發大聯盟 <info@hkcoalition.com>, Mr. Frank Chan <sthoffice@thb.gov.hk>, Mr. Nip Tak Kuen <scsoffice@csb.gov.hk>, Mr. TSUI Ying Wai <sha@hab.gov.hk>, Mr. WONG Kam Sing <sen@enb.gov.hk>, Mr. WONG Wai Lun <sdev@devb.gov.hk>, Prof. CHAN Siu Chee <sfhoffice@fhb.gov.hk>, RTHK <cnews@rthk.hk>, GeorgeY Luk

馬建堂先生/林鄭月娥女士:

 

1. 去年歐志遠(前屯門區議員)的一段短短的回覆,又勾起我對香港的房屋問題本質是政府、地產商的「共犯結構(共犯結構的意思是說,當有不義、不平、不仁之事在你面前發生,而你裝成沒看見,你就是在默許,共同犯科)」,加上占人口比例近半的港人加入了「有樓俱樂部」的「老鼠會」,窒礙了青年置業、社會上流的空間。香港政府要拿出「敢教日月換新天」的鬥志,推行政治、經濟的結構性改革,帶來居住正義,破解深層次的政治與經濟矛盾。

 

2. 一半有樓人士,永遠希望樓價升完再升,永不休止。未置業的另一半人口,不斷希望樓價有停止上揚的一天,可以找到租值較廉宜的居所;而公屋是他們最渴求的,可惜連這一個卑微的希冀,「愛國的治港者」都一再令他們大失所望。中央已把最厲害的「行政主導工具及武器」,通通給了立法會及政府,但「他們」說不能馬上變到房屋出來,「為官避事平生恥」的一個好例子也。

 

3. 各佔人口一半的有樓與無樓兩大幫派,尖鋭對歭的矛盾永不會停下來,各種「行政主導」政策和法規,只能治標,不可能治本,表面暫時歇一歇,遲些又會再出現,總不能將香港變為警察城市。

 

4. 「你們」所持的理由好像振振有詞:總不能叫「你們」在未來半年至十個月間,如魔術師般變出土地和房屋。Rules are made to be broken,不應永遠墨守成規。如何變呢,「一手樓空置稅」,若能在半年內通過的話,未必可以立即解決全部「剛性需求」的壓力,但起碼令市民知道政府有誠意及決心去解決問題。正如習主席一直說,「房子是用來住的,不是用來炒的」

 

5. 所有其他短、中、長期措施,如何可以給中、下至草根階層等,一個合理上到公屋的期望,不可能一蹴即就。那麼就給市民一個Ballpark figure,讓他們不致太過徬徨,尤其是四十多度室溫下,在狹小的劏房內作困獸鬥的人。(A ballpark figure is an estimate of what something might amount to numerically when a more accurate number is assessed, such as the cost of a product. Ballpark figures can be helpful in establishing a placeholder, for purposes of conversation or estimation, when a more precise number is not available.

6. 至於各種覓地方法,政府應該胸有成竹,只是不願將詳細規劃在新一任政府上任前公佈;但應要打破這個成規

 

7. 以下是歐志遠對給特區的信(370)-破解政經等深層次矛盾的簡短回應,真令人非常氣餒:

---------- Forwarded message ---------
寄件者: Au Chi yuen <xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: 2020
33日週二 08:34
Subject: Re: 
給特區的信(370)-破解政經等深層次矛盾
To: George Luk 

沒有用的,寫多少信給多少建議都不會看也不採納。收件看信的都是手下中的手下。

畢竟你也辛苦了,可惜可惜

從我的iPhone傳送

George Luk 202031日 下午5:16寫道:



---------- Forwarded message ---------

寄件者: George Luk 
Date: 2020
31日週日 下午4:41
Subject: 
給特區的信(370)-破解政經等深層次矛盾
To: Mr. Ma Jiantang <drc@drc.gov.cn>, Mrs. Lam Cheng Yuet Ngor <ceo@ceo.gov.hk>

 

馬建堂先生/林鄭月娥女士: 

 

1. 香港須要大膽及大刀闊斧去實行社會、民生以至經濟結構改革, 以下這篇文章,值得全社會好好思考:

黃宇翔 : 新加坡居住正義啟發香港 破解政經矛盾
2019-08-24  

https://toutiaosg.com/%E9%BB%84%E5%AE%87%E7%BF%94%E6%96%B0%E5%8A%A0%E5%9D%A1%E5%B1%85%E4%BD%8F%E6%AD%A3%E4%B9%89%E5%90%AF%E5%8F%91%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF-%E7%A0%B4%E8%A7%A3%E6%94%BF%E7%BB%8F%E7%9F%9B%E7%9B%BE/

原文轉自《亞洲週刊》  33 34

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………


Regards,

 

George Luk

 

 

---------- Forwarded message ---------

寄件者: <ceo@ceo.gov.hk>
Date: 2021
78日週四 上午11:29
Subject: Re: 
給特區的信(430)-如何構建快樂社會?
To: George Luk 

Luk 先生:

謝謝你73日致行政長官的電郵,我獲授權認收,內容備悉。
 
行政長官私人秘書
(
林朗儀 代行)


<如有興趣觀看之前對社會及政府提出意見或建議的電郵,請前往連結:(i)   http://jet2468.blogspot.hk/   (ii)(及歷任政府官員的回覆:https://jet2468.blogspot.com/2015/10/blog-post_30.html >

<網誌內容主要是希望大家能對香港、大陸及週邊地區人士及政府多點理解/體諒,並以一般普羅大眾的觀點,加以進言。>

<閣下如不願意再接收由本人發出的郵件,請回電郵並在「主旨」寫上移除“remove”。由此引致之不便,本人謹此致歉。>

<特此鳴謝被引用或摘錄過文章內容的作者。著作權及版權皆屬該作者及/或其出版機構。聲明:轉載有關文章或視頻是出於傳遞更多信息之目的。若有來源標註錯誤或侵犯了您的合法權益,請作者持權屬證明與本人聯繫,本人將及時更正、刪除,謝謝。>

給特區的信(434)-Rules are made to be broken(Amended)

 

 


寄件者: George Luk
Date: 2021年7月20日週二 下午4:10
Subject: 給特區的信(434)-Rules are made to be broken(Amended)
To: Mr. Ma Jiantang <drc@drc.gov.cn>, Mrs. Lam Cheng Yuet Ngor <ceo@ceo.gov.hk>
Cc: 夏寶龍先生 <service@hmo.gov.cn>, 香港再出發大聯盟 <info@hkcoalition.com>, Mr. Frank Chan <sthoffice@thb.gov.hk>, Mr. Nip Tak Kuen <scsoffice@csb.gov.hk>, Mr. TSUI Ying Wai <sha@hab.gov.hk>, Mr. WONG Kam Sing <sen@enb.gov.hk>, Mr. WONG Wai Lun <sdev@devb.gov.hk>, Prof. CHAN Siu Chee <sfhoffice@fhb.gov.hk>, RTHK <cnews@rthk.hk>, GeorgeY Luk 

補回第六段中的12分鐘視頻:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCHDcBgJTLQ

 

馬建堂先生/林鄭月娥女士:

 

1. 過去的兩年多,先有反修例事件所引發的暴亂,同時有外國撑腰的奪取政權,繼而這近一年半的新冠病毒肆虐的雙重打擊下,所有政府及公職人員所受到的挑戰和衝擊,乃歷任政府所難以比擬。在重擔之下,仍不斷受各方抨擊,是不是有點覺得委屈呢。無法啦,身在其位,要逆境下應對,不單止要應付這些特發而持續的重大事件,原有發酵多時的社會問題,不能說無力兼顧,因為市民絶對不會放鬆,他們的生活重擔比之前更重,生活更艱苦。

 

2. 不打算再回應很多人重覆追問的同一問題:「政府不提出《2019年逃犯及刑事事宜相互法律協助法例(修訂)條例草案》,便不會攪出這麼大的社會事件」。因為之前已經解釋過數次,還有一個陰謀論:可會是「引蛇出洞」。

 

3. 總之,港人因為反對上述相對較輕的修例,換來的是港澳辦、中聯辦及港澳協調小組等改組(港澳領導小組取代其職能),接受「港區國安法」的保護,大幅完善選舉辦法等等一系列新舉措。

 

4. 無興趣咬住「一手樓空置稅」,因為這只是一個策略性的stopgap measure. 這幾年樓市的暢旺之下,發展商手頭上應不會有壓倉貨尾留下。而空置稅也要滿足一系列條件,包括持貨期等等,所以很難有機會施行得到。其實就算立了法,也是一個難以實施的法。只是讓全社會明白,政府對打擊超高樓價的决心而矣。

 

5. 夏寶龍主任上星期暗示,2049年中國一百年國慶之前,香港應該解決住屋難這個問題。言詞看似輕鬆,騷不着癢處,但相信未到新特首選舉結果前後,大幅度土地的增加,已在弦上。

 

6. 美國的CPI,似仍未到危險地步。但PPI(生產物價指數),製造成本高了,零售消費物價必貴,故美儲局成日講消費物價,是誤導大眾。美儲局不敢講PPI,是因為自2021年初以來的PPI增幅,如將之年率化,將是32%!!!32%呀!不是3﹒2%,這是自70年以來,即是50年來的最大增速!(此段引自今天石鏡泉的《缸邊隨筆》)。看看這八分鐘在美華人唱衰美國的短片:https://www.facebook.com/groups/191466598021562/permalink/1180450225789856/?sfnsn=mo  及這十二分鐘直接評論美聯儲對CPI的應對之道:「賭」

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCHDcBgJTLQ

 

7. 以下取材自維基百科的「保羅·沃克」中文篇:

https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%BF%9D%E7%BD%97%C2%B7%E6%B2%83%E5%B0%94%E5%85%8B

 

8. 1980年,沃克將聯邦基準利率提高到歷史最高點,以此結束了美國兩位數的通貨膨脹。 2015年,以沃克奠定的《沃克規則》,禁止商業銀行利用客戶存款來牟利。同年,沃克呼籲制定新的《布雷頓森林協議》,以規則來規範世界各國的貨幣政策。

 

9. 沃克衝擊

沃克用緊縮性貨幣政策來應對當時美國每年10%的通脹。在19803月份,他將聯邦基準利率從10.25%提升到20%,在當年6月份他短暫的下調的利率,隨後通貨膨脹持續,於是他在12月又將利率提高到20%,並保持在16%以上。一直到19815月終止。這種極端的利率上調整政策被稱為「沃克衝擊」。他確實結束了美國的通貨膨脹,但這也造成了1981年的經濟衰退

 

10. 政策的有效性

沃克清楚地明白,他必須的政策必須一視同仁,讓外界相信他可以控制通貨膨脹,由於美元的價格在外匯市場的暴跌,導致進口產品價格上漲,造成了通貨膨脹。尼克森總統在1971年試圖通過調控工資來阻止通脹,但卻限制了商業活動的發展,減緩了增長並導致滯脹。沃克的政策讓中央的銀行家們意識到管理通脹的預判和重要性。只要人們意識到商品價格持續上漲,就有立即消費的意願。增加的需求推動更高的通脹。當消費者意識到沃克將會結束通脹,他們便停止了持續規模的消費,出於相同的原因,企業對商品的提價也會結束。

 

11. 2009年3月6日道指6626.94是因為什麼才從08金融海嘯之後的低點,泵到今天的35,000點左右?有何基礎因素可以令個市升番五倍多?其實納指及標指都是升過龍。

 

12. 令樓市稍為收韁,可能令很多人安然避過一劫。

 

Regards,

 

George Luk

 

 

 

---------- Forwarded message ---------
寄件者: <ceo@ceo.gov.hk>
Date: 2021
720日週二 上午10:17
Subject: Re: 
給特區的信(433)-愛國者治港之「為官避事平生恥」2
To: George Luk <gl2468@gmail.com>


Luk
先生:

7
16日致行政長官的電郵收悉,我獲授權回覆。我們已把你的意見轉交發展局和運輸及房屋局參閱。

行政長官私人秘書
(
林朗儀 代行)

 



<如有興趣觀看之前對社會及政府提出意見或建議的電郵,請前往連結:(i)   http://jet2468.blogspot.hk/   (ii)(及歷任政府官員的回覆:https://jet2468.blogspot.com/2015/10/blog-post_30.html >

<網誌內容主要是希望大家能對香港、大陸及週邊地區人士及政府多點理解/體諒,並以一般普羅大眾的觀點,加以進言。>

<閣下如不願意再接收由本人發出的郵件,請回電郵並在「主旨」寫上移除“remove”。由此引致之不便,本人謹此致歉。>

<特此鳴謝被引用或摘錄過文章內容的作者。著作權及版權皆屬該作者及/或其出版機構。聲明:轉載有關文章或視頻是出於傳遞更多信息之目的。若有來源標註錯誤或侵犯了您的合法權益,請作者持權屬證明與本人聯繫,本人將及時更正、刪除,謝謝。>